Collins Dictionary 2022 Word of the Year was permacrisis, or “an extended period of instability and insecurity.” World Economic Forum’s 2023 Global Risks Report describes a “polycrisis."
CEO Daily’s Alan Murray, writing for Fortune, asked Indra Nooyi, ex-CEO of PepsiCo how to lead others through these times. She replied: “Rather than articulate a vision, talk about alternatives and scenarios. That way your team will look for changes in the environment that could impact your direction.”
Follower’s of Dan Burrus know to their spend time on future scenarios, but most spend their time putting out current fires precisely because they didn't plan for the future.
There are four futures worth 10% of your time, in descending order. They are your:
1. Preferable Future. “What do we want and expect to happen?”
2. Probable Future. “What probably might happen?”
3. Plausible Future. “It’s not probable, but it could be."
4. Possible Future. “It’s a stretch, and nobody thinks it will happen, but yes, it is possible.”
It’s in the plausible and possible futures (“nah, that won’t scale up”) that you can be caught short. Those tiny blips on the horizon that your 1990’s brain tells you will never be? Well, yes they might, and it’s a good idea to plan for them.
Never say never.
